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Racing Santander II vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Campo Municipal de Villaescusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II66%
×Draw20%
Textil Escudo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
2.14
Textil Escudo
0.89

Racing Santander II creates 140% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
85%
Racing Santander II or Textil Escudo
80%
Draw or Textil Escudo
34%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
42%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
88%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
63%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
36%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
59%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
22%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
82%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.14

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
66%
level
20%
Textil Escudo scores more
15%

Racing Santander II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Santander II 1 – 0 Textil Escudo

Racing Santander II beat Textil Escudo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Villaescusa in Villaescusa.