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Textil Escudo vs Escobedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Escobedo
Escobedo
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo35%
×Draw28%
Escobedo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.15
Escobedo
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 91 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Escobedo
1.31

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Escobedo
1.10

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Escobedo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Escobedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
64%
Textil Escudo or Escobedo
72%
Draw or Escobedo
65%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
15%
Escobedo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
68%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
32%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
11%
Escobedo 1+ goals
69%
Escobedo 2+ goals
33%
Escobedo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
49%
Escobedo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Escobedo away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Escobedo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Escobedo attack 1.31 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
35%
level
28%
Escobedo scores more
36%

Escobedo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Escobedo

Escobedo beat Textil Escudo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.