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Escobedo vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Escobedo
Escobedo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
10/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Escobedo61%
×Draw21%
Textil Escudo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escobedo
1.98
Textil Escudo
0.94

Escobedo creates 111% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 56 away

creates per match

Escobedo
2.05
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Escobedo
0.99
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw
83%
Escobedo or Textil Escudo
79%
Draw or Textil Escudo
39%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+
37%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals
86%
Escobedo 2+ goals
59%
Escobedo 3+ goals
31%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
61%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
24%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)
78%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.98

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Escobedo scores more
61%
level
21%
Textil Escudo scores more
17%

Escobedo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escobedo vs Textil Escudo

Escobedo beat Textil Escudo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo de Camargo.