Textil Escudo 1–3 Bezana: Result & Stats

Textil Escudo

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bezana

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo39%

×Draw28%

Bezana33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Textil EscudoExpected goals in this matchBezana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.13

Textil Escudo

1.26

Bezana

1.13

Textil Escudo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 81 away

1.19

creates per match

1.23

1.03

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Textil Escudo

1.19

Bezana

1.23

allows per match

Textil Escudo

1.03

Bezana

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Bezana →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw

67%

Textil Escudo or Bezana

72%

Draw or Bezana

61%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+

17%

Bezana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals

72%

Textil Escudo 2+ goals

36%

Textil Escudo 3+ goals

13%

Bezana 1+ goals

68%

Bezana 2+ goals

31%

Bezana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)

54%

Bezana (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bezana attack 1.23 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Textil Escudo scores more

39%

level

28%

Bezana scores more

33%

Textil Escudo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Bezana

Bezana beat Textil Escudo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.

Textil Escudo vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Bezana