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Bezana vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Bezana
Bezana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bezana52%
×Draw25%
Textil Escudo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezana
1.63
Textil Escudo
1.00

Bezana creates 63% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 56 away

creates per match

Bezana
1.35
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Bezana
1.13
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bezana or draw
77%
Bezana or Textil Escudo
75%
Draw or Textil Escudo
48%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+
28%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals
80%
Bezana 2+ goals
48%
Bezana 3+ goals
22%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
63%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
26%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)
69%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bezana scores more
52%
level
25%
Textil Escudo scores more
23%

Bezana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bezana vs Textil Escudo

Bezana and Textil Escudo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Santa Cruz de Bezana.