Texas United 4–0 Louisiana Krewe: Result & Stats

Texas United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Louisiana Krewe

6/25/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 12John Clark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Texas United53%

×Draw20%

Louisiana Krewe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Texas UnitedExpected goals in this matchLouisiana Krewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.68

Texas United

2.40

Louisiana Krewe

1.68

Texas United creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

3.09

creates per match

2.18

1.17

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Texas United

3.09

Louisiana Krewe

2.18

allows per match

Texas United

1.17

Louisiana Krewe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Texas United+0.00on par

Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Texas United ↓

Louisiana Krewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Texas United or draw

73%

Texas United or Louisiana Krewe

80%

Draw or Louisiana Krewe

47%

Winning margin

Texas United wins by 2+

33%

Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Texas United 1+ goals

91%

Texas United 2+ goals

69%

Texas United 3+ goals

42%

Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals

81%

Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals

50%

Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Texas United (draw refunded)

66%

Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Texas United at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Louisiana Krewe away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Texas United attack 3.09 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.40

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.18 + Texas United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Texas United scores more

53%

level

20%

Louisiana Krewe scores more

27%

Texas United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Texas United vs Louisiana Krewe

Texas United beat Louisiana Krewe 4-0 in USL League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at John Clark Stadium in Plano, Texas.

Texas United vs Louisiana Krewe — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Texas United vs Louisiana Krewe