Louisiana Krewe 0–2 Texas United: Result & Stats

Louisiana Krewe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Texas United

5/28/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 4Clark Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Louisiana Krewe38%

×Draw21%

Texas United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Louisiana KreweExpected goals in this matchTexas United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.93

Louisiana Krewe

1.86

Texas United

1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

2.19

creates per match

2.50

1.35

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Louisiana Krewe

2.19

Texas United

2.50

allows per match

Louisiana Krewe

1.35

Texas United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par

Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisiana Krewe ↓

Texas United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Louisiana Krewe or draw

59%

Louisiana Krewe or Texas United

79%

Draw or Texas United

62%

Winning margin

Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+

20%

Texas United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals

84%

Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals

55%

Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals

28%

Texas United 1+ goals

85%

Texas United 2+ goals

57%

Texas United 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)

48%

Texas United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisiana Krewe at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.19 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.86

Texas United attack 2.50 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Louisiana Krewe scores more

38%

level

21%

Texas United scores more

41%

Texas United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Louisiana Krewe 0–2 Texas United

Texas United beat Louisiana Krewe 2-0 in USL League Two on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Clark Field in Lafayette, Louisiana.

Louisiana Krewe vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Louisiana Krewe 0–2 Texas United