Limavady United 1–2 H&W Welders: Result & Stats

Limavady United

FT

1 – 2

H&W Welders

11/20/2018

Championship · Round 11The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Limavady United31%

×Draw26%

H&W Welders44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Limavady UnitedExpected goals in this matchH&W Welders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.49

Limavady United

1.20

H&W Welders

1.49

H&W Welders creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.31

creates per match

1.83

1.15

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Limavady United

1.31

H&W Welders

1.83

allows per match

Limavady United

1.15

H&W Welders

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par

H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

H&W Welders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw

56%

Limavady United or H&W Welders

74%

Draw or H&W Welders

69%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+

13%

H&W Welders wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals

70%

Limavady United 2+ goals

34%

Limavady United 3+ goals

12%

H&W Welders 1+ goals

77%

H&W Welders 2+ goals

44%

H&W Welders 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)

41%

H&W Welders (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.31 + H&W Welders defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

H&W Welders attack 1.83 + Limavady United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Limavady United scores more

31%

level

26%

H&W Welders scores more

44%

H&W Welders at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff