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Limavady United vs H&W Welders — League #407 2026

Limavady United
Limavady United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
S. Devine 78'
L. Patterson 76'
Unknown 74' (OG)
9/20/2025League #407League #407 · Round 8The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Limavady United31%
×Draw23%
H&W Welders45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limavady United
1.41
H&W Welders
1.73

H&W Welders creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

Limavady United
1.22
H&W Welders
2.18

allows per match

Limavady United
1.28
H&W Welders
1.59

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw
55%
Limavady United or H&W Welders
77%
Draw or H&W Welders
69%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+
14%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals
76%
Limavady United 2+ goals
41%
Limavady United 3+ goals
17%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
82%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
52%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)
41%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.22 + H&W Welders defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

H&W Welders attack 2.18 + Limavady United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Limavady United scores more
31%
level
23%
H&W Welders scores more
45%

H&W Welders at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
Own goal
76'
L. Patterson
78'
S. Devine
Limavady
H&W
P. Owens
Manager: P. Owens
P. Kee
Manager: P. Kee

Match Recap: Limavady United vs H&W Welders

H&W Welders beat Limavady United 3-0 in League #407 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: ? (74' o.g.), L. Patterson (76'), S. Devine (78').

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Limavady.