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H&W Welders vs Limavady United — League #407 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Limavady United
Limavady United
12/20/2025League #407League #407 · Round 21Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

H&W Welders41%
×Draw22%
Limavady United37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
1.78
Limavady United
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
2.43
Limavady United
1.94

allows per match

H&W Welders
1.43
Limavady United
1.13

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Limavady United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
63%
H&W Welders or Limavady United
78%
Draw or Limavady United
59%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
21%
Limavady United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
83%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
53%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
26%
Limavady United 1+ goals
82%
Limavady United 2+ goals
50%
Limavady United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
52%
Limavady United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Limavady United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.43 + Limavady United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Limavady United attack 1.94 + H&W Welders defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

H&W Welders scores more
41%
level
22%
Limavady United scores more
37%

H&W Welders at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: H&W Welders vs Limavady United

Limavady United beat H&W Welders 3-2 in League #407 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Blanchflower Stadium in Belfast.