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Teutonia Weiden vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Teutonia Weiden
Teutonia Weiden
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
11/17/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13Jupp-Derwall-Stadion - Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Teutonia Weiden39%
×Draw20%
Union Schafhausen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia Weiden
2.06
Union Schafhausen
2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Teutonia Weiden
1.50
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Teutonia Weiden
3.23
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Teutonia Weiden+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia Weiden ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Teutonia Weiden or draw
60%
Teutonia Weiden or Union Schafhausen
80%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
61%

Winning margin

Teutonia Weiden wins by 2+
21%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Teutonia Weiden 1+ goals
87%
Teutonia Weiden 2+ goals
61%
Teutonia Weiden 3+ goals
34%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
88%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
62%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Teutonia Weiden (draw refunded)
49%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia Weiden at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia Weiden attack 1.50 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.06

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Teutonia Weiden defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teutonia Weiden scores more
39%
level
20%
Union Schafhausen scores more
40%

Union Schafhausen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Schafhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teutonia Weiden vs Union Schafhausen

Teutonia Weiden beat Union Schafhausen 5-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Jupp-Derwall-Stadion - Kunstrasen in Würselen.