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Teutonia St.Tönis vs SSVg Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
13:30
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
3/28/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis33%
×Draw24%
SSVg Velbert43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.36
SSVg Velbert
1.60

SSVg Velbert creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
SSVg Velbert
1.95

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
SSVg Velbert
1.03

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
57%
Teutonia St.Tönis or SSVg Velbert
76%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
67%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
14%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
74%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
39%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
16%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
80%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
47%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
43%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

SSVg Velbert attack 1.95 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
33%
level
24%
SSVg Velbert scores more
43%

SSVg Velbert at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Teutonia St.Tönis host SSVg Velbert

March 28, 2021: Teutonia St.Tönis take on SSVg Velbert in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Teutonia St.Tönis host SSVg Velbert at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.