SSVg Velbert 4–0 Teutonia St.Tönis: Result & Stats

SSVg Velbert

FT

4 – 0

Teutonia St.Tönis

10/29/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 11Stadion Velbert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SSVg Velbert58%

×Draw20%

Teutonia St.Tönis22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSVg VelbertExpected goals in this matchTeutonia St.Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.42

SSVg Velbert

2.36

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.42

SSVg Velbert creates 66% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

2.86

creates per match

1.90

0.93

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

SSVg Velbert

2.86

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.90

allows per match

SSVg Velbert

0.93

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw

78%

SSVg Velbert or Teutonia St.Tönis

80%

Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis

42%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

37%

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

90%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

68%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

41%

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals

76%

Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals

41%

Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

72%

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.36

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more

58%

level

20%

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more

22%

SSVg Velbert at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff