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Teutonia St.Tönis vs Schonnebeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
14:30
Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
11/29/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis39%
×Draw23%
Schonnebeck38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.64
Schonnebeck
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 91 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
Schonnebeck
2.00

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
Schonnebeck
1.57

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Schonnebeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
62%
Teutonia St.Tönis or Schonnebeck
77%
Draw or Schonnebeck
61%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
19%
Schonnebeck wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
81%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
49%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
23%
Schonnebeck 1+ goals
80%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
48%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
50%
Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Schonnebeck away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Schonnebeck defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Schonnebeck attack 2.00 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
39%
level
23%
Schonnebeck scores more
38%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teutonia St.Tönis face Schonnebeck (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Teutonia St.Tönis hosting Schonnebeck. Match starts November 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Teutonia St.Tönis host Schonnebeck at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.