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Schonnebeck vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
3 – 0
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
9/5/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 3Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Schonnebeck52%
×Draw20%
Teutonia St.Tönis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.27
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.65

Schonnebeck creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 21 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
72%
Schonnebeck or Teutonia St.Tönis
80%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
48%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
31%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
90%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
66%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
39%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
81%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
49%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
65%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
52%
level
20%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
28%

Schonnebeck at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schonnebeck vs Teutonia St.Tönis

Schonnebeck beat Teutonia St.Tönis 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.