Teutonia St.Tönis vs Jahn Hiesfeld

Teutonia St.Tönis

CANC

13:30

Jahn Hiesfeld

4/18/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis53%

×Draw21%

Jahn Hiesfeld25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teutonia St.TönisExpected goals in this matchJahn Hiesfeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.38

Teutonia St.Tönis

2.08

Jahn Hiesfeld

1.38

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

1.70

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.70

Jahn Hiesfeld

1.50

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.25

Jahn Hiesfeld

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw

75%

Teutonia St.Tönis or Jahn Hiesfeld

79%

Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld

47%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+

32%

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals

87%

Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals

61%

Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals

34%

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals

75%

Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals

40%

Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)

68%

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more

53%

level

21%

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more

25%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff