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Jahn Hiesfeld vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
14:00
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
11/8/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 13Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld40%
×Draw21%
Teutonia St.Tönis38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.93
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
62%
Jahn Hiesfeld or Teutonia St.Tönis
79%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
60%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
85%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
57%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
30%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
85%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
56%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
51%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
40%
level
21%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
38%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Match Preview

Jahn Hiesfeld face Teutonia St.Tönis on November 8, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jahn Hiesfeld host Teutonia St.Tönis at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.