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Teutonia St.Tönis vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
FT
1 – 0
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
9/13/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis41%
×Draw23%
Germania Ratingen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.69
Germania Ratingen
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 91 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
65%
Teutonia St.Tönis or Germania Ratingen
77%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
59%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
21%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
82%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
50%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
24%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
79%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
46%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
54%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
41%
level
23%
Germania Ratingen scores more
35%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teutonia St.Tönis vs Germania Ratingen

Teutonia St.Tönis beat Germania Ratingen 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.