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Germania Ratingen vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
3/9/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1, Ratingen 04/19 e.V.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Germania Ratingen49%
×Draw21%
Teutonia St.Tönis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.04
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.56

Germania Ratingen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 21 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
70%
Germania Ratingen or Teutonia St.Tönis
79%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
51%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
28%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
87%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
60%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
33%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
79%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
46%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
62%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
49%
level
21%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
30%

Germania Ratingen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Germania Ratingen 1 – 1 Teutonia St.Tönis

Germania Ratingen and Teutonia St.Tönis drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1, Ratingen 04/19 e.V. in Ratingen.