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Teutonia St.Tönis vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
14:30
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
12/20/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis62%
×Draw20%
FSV Duisburg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
2.19
FSV Duisburg
1.09

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 101% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
82%
Teutonia St.Tönis or FSV Duisburg
80%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
38%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
39%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
89%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
64%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
37%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
66%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
30%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
78%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.19

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
62%
level
20%
FSV Duisburg scores more
18%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Teutonia St.Tönis host FSV Duisburg

December 20, 2020: Teutonia St.Tönis take on FSV Duisburg in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Teutonia St.Tönis host FSV Duisburg at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.