Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FSV Duisburg vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
CANC
13:30
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
5/30/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 43Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FSV Duisburg31%
×Draw21%
Teutonia St.Tönis48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.62
Teutonia St.Tönis
2.04

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
52%
FSV Duisburg or Teutonia St.Tönis
79%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
69%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
15%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
80%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
48%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
87%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
60%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
39%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
31%
level
21%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
48%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FSV Duisburg face Teutonia St.Tönis (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with FSV Duisburg hosting Teutonia St.Tönis. Match starts May 30, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FSV Duisburg host Teutonia St.Tönis at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.