Teutonia St.Tönis 0–0 Cronenberger SC

Teutonia St.Tönis

FT

0 – 0

Cronenberger SC

9/12/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis58%

×Draw21%

Cronenberger SC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teutonia St.TönisExpected goals in this matchCronenberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.19

Teutonia St.Tönis

2.09

Cronenberger SC

1.19

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 76% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

1.70

creates per match

1.12

1.25

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.70

Cronenberger SC

1.12

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.25

Cronenberger SC

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Cronenberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw

79%

Teutonia St.Tönis or Cronenberger SC

79%

Draw or Cronenberger SC

42%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+

35%

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals

88%

Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals

62%

Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals

34%

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

70%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

33%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)

73%

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more

58%

level

21%

Cronenberger SC scores more

21%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff