Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cronenberger SC vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
5/22/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 8Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cronenberger SC35%
×Draw22%
Teutonia St.Tönis43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.71
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.92

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
57%
Cronenberger SC or Teutonia St.Tönis
78%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
65%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
17%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
82%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
51%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
24%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
85%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
57%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
45%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
35%
level
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
43%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Cronenberger SC 2–1 Teutonia St.Tönis

Cronenberger SC beat Teutonia St.Tönis 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.