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Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
2/3/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 22Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Teuta Durrës44%
×Draw29%
Skenderbeu Korce27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.21
Skenderbeu Korce
0.88

Teuta Durrës creates 38% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 109 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
0.89

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
Skenderbeu Korce
1.29

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
73%
Teuta Durrës or Skenderbeu Korce
71%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
56%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
19%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
70%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
34%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
12%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
59%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
22%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
62%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
44%
level
29%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
27%

Teuta Durrës at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Teuta Durrës 3–0 Skenderbeu Korce

Teuta Durrës beat Skenderbeu Korce 3-0 in Superliga on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.