Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Teuta Durrës

E. Gjini 75'

4/13/2024

Superliga · Round 31Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce38%

×Draw30%

Teuta Durrës32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.00

Skenderbeu Korce

1.12

Teuta Durrës

1.00

Skenderbeu Korce creates 12% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 144 away

1.11

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.11

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.07

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

68%

Skenderbeu Korce or Teuta Durrës

70%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

62%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

16%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

67%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

31%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

10%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

63%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

26%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

54%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

38%

level

30%

Teuta Durrës scores more

32%

Skenderbeu Korce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

53'

57'

59'

65'

68'

69'

R. Faust← K. Daci

75'

82'

83'

85'

90+3'

H. Qaqi← A. Daja

Skenderbeu

Teuta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

68'▲E. Rashica←▼A. Nikaj

82'▲G. Lika←▼R. Dwumfour

85'▲S. Ajine←▼D. Janaqi

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

RashicaLikaAjineDervishajZenullariAlliuVangjeliAliiPecaniMuharem

Manager: E. Martini

59'▲E. Peposhi←▼E. Arifi

69'▲R. Faust←▼K. Daci

90+3'▲H. Qaqi←▼A. Daja

Teuta Durrës substitutes

PeposhiFaustQaqiHalilajDemircaniDemaSylaBoçiTepshi

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Teuta Durrës

Teuta Durrës beat Skenderbeu Korce 1-0 in Superliga on April 13, 2024.

Goals: E. Gjini (75').

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.

Skenderbeu Korce vs Teuta Durrës — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Teuta Durrës