Skenderbeu Korce 2–3 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Teuta Durrës

E. Rashica 90+4'

A. Nikaj 8'

A. Kruja 73'

K. Preknicaj 66'

L. Beqja 37'

9/11/2024

Superliga · Round 4Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce38%

×Draw31%

Teuta Durrës31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.94

Skenderbeu Korce

1.07

Teuta Durrës

0.94

Skenderbeu Korce creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 90 away

0.93

creates per match

0.82

1.05

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

0.93

Teuta Durrës

0.82

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.05

Teuta Durrës

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

69%

Skenderbeu Korce or Teuta Durrës

69%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

62%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

15%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

66%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

29%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

9%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

61%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

24%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

55%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.93 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Teuta Durrës attack 0.82 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

38%

level

31%

Teuta Durrës scores more

31%

Skenderbeu Korce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

18'

32'

37'

46'

E. Peposhi← Saleh Nasr

59'

A. Gerco

59'

B. Kotobelli

60'

M. Boçi← A. Peposhi

62'

K. Shaqe← K. Vangjeli

66'

K. Preknicaj

69'

R. Toma← K. Preknicaj

70'

E. Krasniqi← F. Kamleu

73'

80'

83'

83'

90+2'

M. Boci

90+4'

E. Rashica

Skenderbeu

Teuta

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nikaj

⚽

Rashica

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

62'▲K. Shaqe←▼K. Vangjeli

70'▲E. Krasniqi←▼F. Kamleu

83'▲E. Tare←▼Yuri Merlim

83'▲F. Çuçka←▼A. Nikaj

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

ShaqeKrasniqiTareÇuçkaZenullariNergutiRrokuVásquezPecaniAbiodun

Manager: E. Martini

46'▲E. Peposhi←▼Saleh Nasr

60'▲M. Boçi←▼A. Peposhi

69'▲R. Toma←▼K. Preknicaj

80'▲D. Simeu←▼E. Arifi

Teuta Durrës substitutes

PeposhiBoçiTomaSimeuKarabeciSylaVataTepshiTorrajHasanbelli