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Teungueth vs Ouakam — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ouakam
Ouakam
3/2/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Ngalandou Diouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Teungueth43%
×Draw37%
Ouakam21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
0.90
Ouakam
0.53

Teungueth creates 70% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 43 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
Ouakam
0.49

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
Ouakam
0.63

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
Ouakam+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

Ouakam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–113%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
17%83%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
79%
Teungueth or Ouakam
63%
Draw or Ouakam
57%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
15%
Ouakam wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
59%
Teungueth 2+ goals
23%
Teungueth 3+ goals
6%
Ouakam 1+ goals
41%
Ouakam 2+ goals
10%
Ouakam 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
67%
Ouakam (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Ouakam away — creates 0.49, concedes 0.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + Ouakam defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ouakam attack 0.49 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teungueth scores more
43%
level
37%
Ouakam scores more
21%

Teungueth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Teungueth 2–1 Ouakam

Teungueth beat Ouakam 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ngalandou Diouf in Rufisque.