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Ouakam vs Teungueth — Ligue 1 2019

Ouakam
Ouakam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teungueth
Teungueth
5/3/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ouakam35%
×Draw33%
Teungueth32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ouakam
0.92
Teungueth
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ouakam
1.19
Teungueth
0.96

allows per match

Ouakam
0.77
Teungueth
0.64

finishing

Ouakam+0.00on par
Teungueth+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ouakam ↓

Teungueth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ouakam or draw
68%
Ouakam or Teungueth
67%
Draw or Teungueth
65%

Winning margin

Ouakam wins by 2+
13%
Teungueth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ouakam 1+ goals
60%
Ouakam 2+ goals
23%
Ouakam 3+ goals
7%
Teungueth 1+ goals
58%
Teungueth 2+ goals
21%
Teungueth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ouakam (draw refunded)
52%
Teungueth (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ouakam at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Teungueth away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ouakam attack 1.19 + Teungueth defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.92

Teungueth attack 0.96 + Ouakam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ouakam scores more
35%
level
33%
Teungueth scores more
32%

Ouakam at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ouakam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ouakam vs Teungueth

Ouakam and Teungueth drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 3, 2026.