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Teteks vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ohrid
Ohrid
4/25/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Teteks41%
×Draw26%
Ohrid33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.42
Ohrid
1.23

Teteks creates 15% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 80 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
67%
Teteks or Ohrid
74%
Draw or Ohrid
59%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
20%
Ohrid wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
76%
Teteks 2+ goals
41%
Teteks 3+ goals
17%
Ohrid 1+ goals
71%
Ohrid 2+ goals
35%
Ohrid 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
56%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Teteks scores more
41%
level
26%
Ohrid scores more
33%

Teteks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Teteks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teteks vs Ohrid

Ohrid beat Teteks 2-1 in Second League on April 25, 2026.