Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ohrid vs Teteks — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Teteks
Teteks
11/4/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ohrid62%
×Draw20%
Teteks18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
2.13
Teteks
1.04

Ohrid creates 105% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
Teteks
1.28

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
Teteks
2.46

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Teteks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Teteks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
82%
Ohrid or Teteks
80%
Draw or Teteks
38%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
39%
Teteks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
88%
Ohrid 2+ goals
63%
Ohrid 3+ goals
35%
Teteks 1+ goals
65%
Teteks 2+ goals
28%
Teteks 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
78%
Teteks (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Teteks away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Teteks defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.13

Teteks attack 1.28 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ohrid scores more
62%
level
20%
Teteks scores more
18%

Ohrid at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ohrid 4–3 Teteks

Ohrid beat Teteks 4-3 in Second League on November 4, 2025.