Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teteks vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Teteks
Teteks
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
12/9/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion AMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Teteks38%
×Draw27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teteks
1.32
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

creates per match

Teteks
1.57
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.97

allows per match

Teteks
1.52
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.07

finishing

Teteks+0.00on par
Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teteks ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Teteks or draw
65%
Teteks or Bashkimi Kumanovo
73%
Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo
62%

Winning margin

Teteks wins by 2+
17%
Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Teteks 1+ goals
73%
Teteks 2+ goals
38%
Teteks 3+ goals
15%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
71%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
36%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Teteks (draw refunded)
52%
Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teteks at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teteks attack 1.57 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Teteks defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teteks scores more
38%
level
27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
35%

Teteks at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teteks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teteks vs Bashkimi Kumanovo

Teteks and Bashkimi Kumanovo drew 0-0 in Second League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion AMS in Tetovo.