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Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Teteks — Second League 2019

Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teteks
Teteks
5/19/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Milano Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo59%
×Draw21%
Teteks20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bashkimi Kumanovo
2.09
Teteks
1.14

Bashkimi Kumanovo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.73
Teteks
1.28

allows per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.00
Teteks
2.46

finishing

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par
Teteks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashkimi Kumanovo ↓

Teteks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw
80%
Bashkimi Kumanovo or Teteks
79%
Draw or Teteks
41%

Winning margin

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
36%
Teteks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
88%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
62%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
34%
Teteks 1+ goals
68%
Teteks 2+ goals
32%
Teteks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
74%
Teteks (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Teteks away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.73 + Teteks defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.09

Teteks attack 1.28 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
59%
level
21%
Teteks scores more
20%

Bashkimi Kumanovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bashkimi Kumanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Teteks

Bashkimi Kumanovo beat Teteks 1-0 in Second League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Milano Arena in Kumanovo.