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Teskánd vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Móri SE
Móri SE
4/30/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 35Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd35%
×Draw21%
Móri SE43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.81
Móri SE
2.02

Móri SE creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
57%
Teskánd or Móri SE
79%
Draw or Móri SE
65%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
18%
Móri SE wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
84%
Teskánd 2+ goals
54%
Teskánd 3+ goals
27%
Móri SE 1+ goals
87%
Móri SE 2+ goals
60%
Móri SE 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
45%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teskánd scores more
35%
level
21%
Móri SE scores more
43%

Móri SE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Móri SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teskánd vs Móri SE

Móri SE beat Teskánd 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.