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Móri SE vs Teskánd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Teskánd
Teskánd
11/6/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 16Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE37%
×Draw22%
Teskánd42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.82
Teskánd
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Teskánd
1.47

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Teskánd
2.95

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Teskánd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
58%
Móri SE or Teskánd
78%
Draw or Teskánd
63%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
19%
Teskánd wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
84%
Móri SE 2+ goals
54%
Móri SE 3+ goals
27%
Teskánd 1+ goals
86%
Teskánd 2+ goals
58%
Teskánd 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
47%
Teskánd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Móri SE scores more
37%
level
22%
Teskánd scores more
42%

Teskánd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Teskánd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 2–5 Teskánd

Teskánd beat Móri SE 5-2 in NB III - Southwest on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.