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Teskánd vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
M. Szabo 45'
N. Pinter 86'
M. Ekker 39'
2/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd16%
×Draw18%
Kaposvar66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.08
Kaposvar
2.40

Kaposvar creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
34%
Teskánd or Kaposvar
82%
Draw or Kaposvar
84%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
6%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
66%
Teskánd 2+ goals
29%
Teskánd 3+ goals
10%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
91%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
69%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
19%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Teskánd scores more
16%
level
18%
Kaposvar scores more
66%

Kaposvar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Ekker
45'
M. Szabo
86'
N. Pinter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 1–2 Kaposvar

Kaposvar beat Teskánd 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

Goals: M. Ekker (39'), M. Szabo (45'), N. Pinter (86').

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.