Kaposvar 1–2 Teskánd: Result & Stats

Kaposvar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Teskánd

N. Pinter 76'

P. Hetesi 30', 20'

8/14/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 3Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaposvar60%

×Draw19%

Teskánd21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaposvarExpected goals in this matchTeskánd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.35

Kaposvar

2.39

Teskánd

1.35

Kaposvar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

1.47

1.23

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Kaposvar

1.83

Teskánd

1.47

allows per match

Kaposvar

1.23

Teskánd

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Teskánd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw

79%

Kaposvar or Teskánd

81%

Draw or Teskánd

40%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+

38%

Teskánd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals

91%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

69%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

42%

Teskánd 1+ goals

74%

Teskánd 2+ goals

39%

Teskánd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

74%

Teskánd (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.39

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kaposvar scores more

60%

level

19%

Teskánd scores more

21%

Kaposvar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

P. Hetesi

30'

P. Hetesi

76'

N. Pinter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff