Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Teskánd vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
4/16/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 32Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd23%
×Draw21%
Gyori ETO II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.27
Gyori ETO II
2.10

Gyori ETO II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Gyori ETO II
1.32

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Gyori ETO II
1.39

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
44%
Teskánd or Gyori ETO II
79%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
77%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
9%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
72%
Teskánd 2+ goals
36%
Teskánd 3+ goals
14%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
88%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
62%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
29%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gyori ETO II attack 1.32 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Teskánd scores more
23%
level
21%
Gyori ETO II scores more
56%

Gyori ETO II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Teskánd 1–1 Gyori ETO II

Teskánd and Gyori ETO II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.