Gyori ETO II 3–1 Teskánd: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Teskánd

B. Sipocz 89'

T. Szabo 31'

M. Huszar 11'

B. Pergel 65'

10/16/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 13ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyori ETO II61%

×Draw19%

Teskánd21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO IIExpected goals in this matchTeskánd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.42

Gyori ETO II

2.52

Teskánd

1.42

Gyori ETO II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

2.08

creates per match

1.47

1.37

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Gyori ETO II

2.08

Teskánd

1.47

allows per match

Gyori ETO II

1.37

Teskánd

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Teskánd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw

79%

Gyori ETO II or Teskánd

81%

Draw or Teskánd

39%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

40%

Teskánd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

92%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

71%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

45%

Teskánd 1+ goals

76%

Teskánd 2+ goals

41%

Teskánd 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

75%

Teskánd (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 2.08 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.52

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more

61%

level

19%

Teskánd scores more

21%

Gyori ETO II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Huszar

31'

T. Szabo

65'

B. Pergel

89'

B. Sipocz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff