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Teruel vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Teruel
Teruel
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
5/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel34%
×Draw29%
Osasuna II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
1.09
Osasuna II
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.74
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Teruel
1.26
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
63%
Teruel or Osasuna II
71%
Draw or Osasuna II
66%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
13%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
66%
Teruel 2+ goals
30%
Teruel 3+ goals
10%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
69%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
32%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
48%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Teruel scores more
34%
level
29%
Osasuna II scores more
37%

Osasuna II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teruel vs Osasuna II

Osasuna II beat Teruel 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Pinila in Teruel.