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Osasuna II vs Teruel — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Teruel
Teruel
12/3/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Osasuna II32%
×Draw30%
Teruel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
0.99
Teruel
1.10

Teruel creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Teruel
0.95

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Teruel
0.89

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
62%
Osasuna II or Teruel
70%
Draw or Teruel
68%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
12%
Teruel wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
63%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
26%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%
Teruel 1+ goals
67%
Teruel 2+ goals
30%
Teruel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
46%
Teruel (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Teruel defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Teruel attack 0.95 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Osasuna II scores more
32%
level
30%
Teruel scores more
38%

Teruel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Teruel

Osasuna II and Teruel drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.