Teruel 1–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Teruel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Aitor Pascual 25'

1/20/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio La Pinila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel38%

×Draw30%

Cornellà32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TeruelExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.97

Teruel

1.08

Cornellà

0.97

Teruel creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.74

creates per match

0.68

1.26

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Teruel

0.74

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Teruel

1.26

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Teruel or draw

68%

Teruel or Cornellà

70%

Draw or Cornellà

62%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+

15%

Cornellà wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals

66%

Teruel 2+ goals

29%

Teruel 3+ goals

10%

Cornellà 1+ goals

62%

Cornellà 2+ goals

25%

Cornellà 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)

54%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.74 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Teruel defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Teruel scores more

38%

level

30%

Cornellà scores more

32%

Teruel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Aitor Pascual

53'

N. Castillo

61'

F. García← Borja Romero

63'

Canario← Kike López

67'

E. Cabetas

69'

David Aparicio← Jorge Alastuey

69'

Víctor Sanchís← Borja Giner

75'

Luisao Macías← Gonpi

75'

Robert Simón← Toni Arranz

78'

D. Aparicio

85'

Adam Cherradi← P. Soma

88'

Canario

90+3'

A. Pascual

90+1'

Tony Gabarre← Guillem Naranjo

Teruel

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

61'▲F. García←▼Borja Romero

69'▲David Aparicio←▼Jorge Alastuey

69'▲Víctor Sanchís←▼Borja Giner

90+1'▲Tony Gabarre←▼Guillem Naranjo

Teruel substitutes

GarcíaAparicioSanchísGabarreGaixasVillaLáinezGómezRodríguez

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

63'▲Canario←▼Kike López

75'▲Luisao Macías←▼Gonpi

75'▲Robert Simón←▼Toni Arranz

85'▲Adam Cherradi←▼P. Soma

Cornellà substitutes

CanarioMacíasSimónCherradiRíosHaoVilaplana