Cornellà 1–1 Teruel: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Teruel

Claudio 90+1'

Sergio Buenacasa 31'

10/29/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà33%

×Draw33%

Teruel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchTeruel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.92

Cornellà

0.89

Teruel

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

0.89

creates per match

0.95

0.89

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Teruel

0.95

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Teruel

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Teruel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

66%

Cornellà or Teruel

67%

Draw or Teruel

67%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

11%

Teruel wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

59%

Cornellà 2+ goals

22%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Teruel 1+ goals

60%

Teruel 2+ goals

23%

Teruel 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

49%

Teruel (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Teruel away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Teruel defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Teruel attack 0.95 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Cornellà scores more

33%

level

33%

Teruel scores more

34%

Teruel at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

31'

44'

50'

66'

Gonpi← Marc Tenas

66'

José Mas← Kike López

67'

Canario

74'

Tony Gabarre← Sergio Buenacasa

76'

Luisao Macías← Canario

76'

M. Gorriti← Sergio Ayala

84'

Víctor Sanchís← Arnau Gaixas

86'

Borja Romero← David Aparicio

87'

Julen Hualde← Jorge Alastuey

90+1'

Claudio

Cornellà

Teruel

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

66'▲Gonpi←▼Marc Tenas

66'▲José Mas←▼Kike López

76'▲Luisao Macías←▼Canario

76'▲M. Gorriti←▼Sergio Ayala

Cornellà substitutes

GonpiMasMacíasGorritiCherradiGonzálezGarridoRíosKoffiHaoNiangPesca

Manager: Víctor Bravo

74'▲Tony Gabarre←▼Sergio Buenacasa

84'▲Víctor Sanchís←▼Arnau Gaixas

86'▲Borja Romero←▼David Aparicio

87'▲Julen Hualde←▼Jorge Alastuey

Teruel substitutes

GabarreSanchísRomeroHualdeGinerVillaGarcíaSierraRodríguezCorreia