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Terre Sainte vs Servette II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Servette II
Servette II
8/20/20221. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Terre Sainte22%
×Draw20%
Servette II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
1.41
Servette II
2.35

Servette II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Servette II
2.53

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Servette II
1.33

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
42%
Terre Sainte or Servette II
80%
Draw or Servette II
78%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
10%
Servette II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
76%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
41%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
17%
Servette II 1+ goals
90%
Servette II 2+ goals
68%
Servette II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
28%
Servette II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Servette II away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Servette II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Servette II attack 2.53 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
22%
level
20%
Servette II scores more
58%

Servette II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Servette II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Terre Sainte 3–2 Servette II

Terre Sainte beat Servette II 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Centre Sportif des Rojalets in Coppet.