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Servette II vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Servette II
Servette II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
3/5/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Servette II70%
×Draw16%
Terre Sainte14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette II
2.67
Terre Sainte
1.11

Servette II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

creates per match

Servette II
3.18
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Servette II
1.00
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Servette II+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette II ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Servette II or draw
86%
Servette II or Terre Sainte
84%
Draw or Terre Sainte
30%

Winning margin

Servette II wins by 2+
49%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Servette II 1+ goals
93%
Servette II 2+ goals
74%
Servette II 3+ goals
49%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
67%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
30%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Servette II (draw refunded)
84%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette II at home — creates 3.18, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette II attack 3.18 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.67

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Servette II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Servette II scores more
70%
level
16%
Terre Sainte scores more
14%

Servette II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Servette II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Servette II 0–0 Terre Sainte

Servette II and Terre Sainte drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules in Vernier.