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Terre Sainte vs Pully Football — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Pully Football
Pully Football
5/25/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Terre Sainte45%
×Draw22%
Pully Football33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
1.94
Pully Football
1.66

Terre Sainte creates 17% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Pully Football
1.13

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Pully Football
2.40

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Pully Football →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
67%
Terre Sainte or Pully Football
78%
Draw or Pully Football
55%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
25%
Pully Football wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
86%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
58%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
30%
Pully Football 1+ goals
81%
Pully Football 2+ goals
49%
Pully Football 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
57%
Pully Football (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
45%
level
22%
Pully Football scores more
33%

Terre Sainte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Terre Sainte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Terre Sainte vs Pully Football

Pully Football beat Terre Sainte 4-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif des Rojalets in Coppet.