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Pully Football vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Pully Football
Pully Football
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
11/18/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Centre sportif de Rochettaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pully Football43%
×Draw22%
Terre Sainte35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pully Football
1.92
Terre Sainte
1.72

Pully Football creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Pully Football
1.67
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Pully Football
2.20
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Pully Football+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pully Football ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pully Football or draw
65%
Pully Football or Terre Sainte
78%
Draw or Terre Sainte
57%

Winning margin

Pully Football wins by 2+
24%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pully Football 1+ goals
85%
Pully Football 2+ goals
57%
Pully Football 3+ goals
30%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
82%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
51%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pully Football (draw refunded)
55%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pully Football at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pully Football attack 1.67 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.92

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Pully Football defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pully Football scores more
43%
level
22%
Terre Sainte scores more
35%

Pully Football at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pully Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pully Football vs Terre Sainte

Terre Sainte beat Pully Football 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Rochettaz in Pully.