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Terre Sainte vs Lausanne Sport II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
CANC
00:00
Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
4/11/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Terre Sainte29%
×Draw22%
Lausanne Sport II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
1.50
Lausanne Sport II
2.00

Lausanne Sport II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Lausanne Sport II
1.83

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Lausanne Sport II
1.53

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Lausanne Sport II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
51%
Terre Sainte or Lausanne Sport II
78%
Draw or Lausanne Sport II
71%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
13%
Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
78%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
44%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
19%
Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
86%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
59%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
37%
Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
29%
level
22%
Lausanne Sport II scores more
49%

Lausanne Sport II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Terre Sainte face Lausanne Sport II (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Terre Sainte hosting Lausanne Sport II. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Terre Sainte host Lausanne Sport II at Centre Sportif des Rojalets.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.