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Lausanne Sport II vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lausanne Sport II
Lausanne Sport II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
4/10/20221. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Centre sportif de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lausanne Sport II63%
×Draw19%
Terre Sainte18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne Sport II
2.37
Terre Sainte
1.21

Lausanne Sport II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Lausanne Sport II
2.57
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Lausanne Sport II
1.19
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne Sport II ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lausanne Sport II or draw
82%
Lausanne Sport II or Terre Sainte
81%
Draw or Terre Sainte
37%

Winning margin

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+
41%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals
91%
Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals
68%
Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals
42%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
70%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
34%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)
77%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne Sport II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne Sport II attack 2.57 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.37

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lausanne Sport II scores more
63%
level
19%
Terre Sainte scores more
18%

Lausanne Sport II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne Sport II vs Terre Sainte

Lausanne Sport II beat Terre Sainte 5-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Centre sportif de la Tuilière in Lausanne.