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Terre Sainte vs Concordia Lausanne — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Concordia Lausanne
Concordia Lausanne
5/13/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Centre Sportif des Rojalets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Terre Sainte50%
×Draw22%
Concordia Lausanne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Terre Sainte
2.04
Concordia Lausanne
1.49

Terre Sainte creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Terre Sainte
1.48
Concordia Lausanne
0.80

allows per match

Terre Sainte
2.18
Concordia Lausanne
2.60

finishing

Terre Sainte+0.00on par
Concordia Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terre Sainte ↓

Concordia Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Terre Sainte or draw
72%
Terre Sainte or Concordia Lausanne
78%
Draw or Concordia Lausanne
50%

Winning margin

Terre Sainte wins by 2+
29%
Concordia Lausanne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Terre Sainte 1+ goals
87%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
60%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
33%
Concordia Lausanne 1+ goals
77%
Concordia Lausanne 2+ goals
44%
Concordia Lausanne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
64%
Concordia Lausanne (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Terre Sainte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.18 · 56 matches

Concordia Lausanne away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Terre Sainte attack 1.48 + Concordia Lausanne defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.04

Concordia Lausanne attack 0.80 + Terre Sainte defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Terre Sainte scores more
50%
level
22%
Concordia Lausanne scores more
28%

Terre Sainte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Terre Sainte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Terre Sainte vs Concordia Lausanne

Terre Sainte and Concordia Lausanne drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Centre Sportif des Rojalets in Coppet.