Concordia Lausanne 1–0 Terre Sainte: Result & Stats

Concordia Lausanne

FT

1 – 0

Terre Sainte

11/5/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Centre sportif de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Concordia Lausanne50%

×Draw21%

Terre Sainte28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia LausanneExpected goals in this matchTerre Sainte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.52

Concordia Lausanne

2.08

Terre Sainte

1.52

Concordia Lausanne creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

2.00

creates per match

1.23

1.80

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Concordia Lausanne

2.00

Terre Sainte

1.23

allows per match

Concordia Lausanne

1.80

Terre Sainte

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Lausanne+0.00on par

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Lausanne ↓

Terre Sainte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Concordia Lausanne or draw

72%

Concordia Lausanne or Terre Sainte

79%

Draw or Terre Sainte

50%

Winning margin

Concordia Lausanne wins by 2+

29%

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Concordia Lausanne 1+ goals

87%

Concordia Lausanne 2+ goals

61%

Concordia Lausanne 3+ goals

34%

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

78%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

45%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Concordia Lausanne (draw refunded)

64%

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Lausanne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Lausanne attack 2.00 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Concordia Lausanne defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Concordia Lausanne scores more

50%

level

21%

Terre Sainte scores more

28%

Concordia Lausanne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Concordia Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff